Conservatives in the lead for first time in federal campaign: new poll

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For the first time in the 2025 election campaign, a poll has emerged showing the Conservatives in the lead.

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A just-published survey by Innovative Research had the Tories at 38 per cent to the Liberals’ 37 per cent.

Although the results would likely translate into a Liberal minority government, it’s the first of more than two dozen polls published since the March 23 start of the campaign that had the Tories out front.

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“The Conservatives have narrowed the Liberal momentum gap. The Liberal campaign is still scoring more points with more people, but their advantage is much smaller,” declared a statement by Innovative Research.

Surveys released by seven other major pollsters (Leger, Nanos, Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Angus Reid Institute, Liaison Strategies, Ekos) all continue to show the Conservatives trailing by as much as nine points.

A Nanos poll published Wednesday, for instance, had the Liberals at 45.8 per cent to the Conservatives’ 36.7 per cent.

A Postmedia-Leger poll, released Wednesday, had the Liberals at 44 per cent and the Conservatives at 38 per cent.

Aside from the Innovative Research poll, the only other point of light for the Tories has been an Abacus Data poll published Sunday which showed the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 39 per cent.

Given the “efficiency of the Liberal vote,” however, Abacus noted that a tie is effectively a Liberal victory.

In the past two federal elections, the Conservatives have actually garnered a plurality of the popular vote, but won far fewer seats than the Liberals.

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This is due to the fact that Liberals excel in tight ridings where it can take as little as 36 per cent to win a seat.

The Conservative caucus, by contrast, is disproportionately composed of Prairie MPs occupying extremely safe seats. Any increase in Conservative vote share in those areas is effectively “wasted.”

The Liberal campaign is still scoring more points with more people, but their advantage is much smaller

The Innovative Research poll also had good tidings for the Conservatives in its regional results. The party is leading in B.C., and in Ontario was tied with the Liberals at 41 per cent.

However, this contrasts with this weeks’ Leger/Postmedia poll, which found that the Liberals have a 10-point lead in B.C. and Ontario, despite the Conservatives having higher support in those provinces than they did in the last two elections.

In B.C. and Ontario, Mark Carney’s Liberals hold a 10-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. That’s despite support for Poilievre’s troops now being higher in both B.C. and Ontario than it was in either the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

The Innovative Research poll also showed a bit of a resurgence for both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois, both of which would likely result in trimming the size of any future Liberal caucus.

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The 2025 election is already being defined by wild swings in polling, and large differentials between competing pollsters.

Only three months ago, the Liberals were on course for a historic wipeout. Now, select polls have them favoured to win one of the most commanding Liberal majorities in Canadian history.

As noted by Abacus Data’s David Coletto, one of the variables that pollsters are having to manage in the 2025 race is voter turnout. Unlike the more somnolent elections of 2019 and 2021, the much more contentious 2025 is likely to feature an uptick in voter participation.

As Coletto said in a Wednesday social media post, “It looks like one of the big areas of disagreement among some polls is what non-voters in 2021 are going to do.”

Abacus Data is attempting to manage this by segmenting out 2021 non-voters who are planning to cast a ballot in 2025. Among that specific demographic, there is a comfortable Conservative lead of 40 per cent to the Liberals’ 31 per cent.

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